L’avenir : la longue série de crashs régionaux qui continue ... comme si on ramassait en 5 ans l’équivalent des 20 ans de crises prémonitoires depuis LTCM ?
Ca me semble bien dans la ligne historique traditionelle.
Mais selon Leap2020 dès juillet le “big one” ... le dollar déjà ?
Il est vrai que les gouvernements accélèrent massivement leurs longues constructions actives de ces crises ! Dans le cas de la crise financière, parmis d’autres, c’est époustouflant ! Les recettes fiscales sont en chute libre pendant que leurs dettes explosent : mille ans d’intérêt à venir ... le paradis des financiers dans un poulailler de nations éperdues qui paniquent et piaillent dans tous les sens.
Mais revenons aux agences de notation anglo-saxonnes elles sont plus “drôles”.
I will keep posting on this topic until the farce that is AAA rating is removed from the good ole US of A by the major agencies.
Just keep in mind there were only 7 “AAA” rated companies in America about 18 months ago - two were General Electric (GE) and AIG (AIG). You know how that turned out. (...)
There is simply no way we could pay our old obligations [Jul 28, 2008: US Budget Deficit to Half a Trillion] ... on the path we were heading; and now we’ve made those obligations look like child’s play. (...)
We can now borrow at pathetically low rates because all the world is in fear, and all things being equal, the U.S. is still seen as safe haven. (...) Currency is all about faith… (...)
the amount of U.S. Treasurys held by the public, including foreign governments, is expected to rise to $7.8 trillion by the end of the government’s fiscal year in September, up from $5.8 trillion a year earlier.
(that’s simply staggering growth in 1 year - 34%! And you ain’t seen nothin’ yet kiddo)
What’s more, Moody’s predicts that this figure could increase to $9 trillion by September 2010, since the government is likely to take advantage of the current low rates to finance its various bailout efforts.
(this would be growth of 55% over 2 fiscal years) (...)
Nonetheless, officials with Moody’s and S&P defend their current AAA ratings for U.S. debt. They say that the U.S.’ debt level as a percentage of gross domestic product and interest payments as a percentage of tax revenue are well within the range found in the other 17 nations that still have AAA ratings. (...)
Still, some smaller rating agencies have already lowered their U.S. rating.
Egan-Jones Group actually removed the AAA rating from U.S. debt four years ago, well before the current crisis in financial markets prompted trillions in government bailouts.
(now Egan-Jones on the other hand is considered a realistic agency who actually warned of much of the carnage that was to come. Funny how the one who warned of the hell that was to break out in our financial situation is also agreeing with the very obvious conclusion… while the major credit agencies do their usual. And this was 4 YEARS ago before all the new obligations) (...)
Egan doesn’t think there is much threat of the government defaulting on its debt. But he said that government policies will lead to a severe devaluation of the dollar, which could leave investors almost as bad off as a default. (...)
(kids, get your US pesos converted into Australian dollars, or Norweigen Krones or something that will actually have “faith” behind it over the next 5 years. We’re going out banana style!)