Les inévitables fluctuations de la situation en Irak, ou l’obscénité de la comptabilité US

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Question principale, littéralement un problème de marketing, ou d’“image” si vous voulez: le “surge” US en Irak marche-t-il? Tout est suspendu à cela, puisque la réponse à cette question entretient, dans un sens ou l’autre, la bagarre principale: la bataille politicienne de Washington. On ne s’étonnera donc pas d’avoir de surprenantes évaluations.

L’armée US, tendance Petraeus, est vraiment très, très contente. Il faut donc entendre l’adjoint de Petraeus, le général Odierno, tel qu’en lui-même selon AFP relayée par Defense News du 1er novembre:

«A combination of the U.S. troop surge into Iraq, improvements in the size and quality of Iraqi Security Forces and a growing local rejection of al-Qaida has produced a five-month decline in the number of coalition troops killed in action and a four-month decline in overall violence in Iraq, the No. 2 U.S. ground commander said today.

»Army Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, who spoke with Pentagon reporters Thursday via satellite link from Iraq, said the downward trend in violence represented “the longest continuous decline in attacks on record,” and illustrates how the addition of five U.S. brigade combat teams and support forces earlier this year have improved security in Iraq.

»U.S. officials say the violence trends are the key indicator of improved security and a significant sign of progress toward the official U.S. goal of a “unified, democratic Iraq that can govern, defend and sustain itself.”

»The number of overall attacks in October reported by Odierno is the lowest since sectarian violence spiked sharply upward in February 2006 after the bombing of the Samarra mosque, a holy Shi’ite shrine.

» In the final week of October 2006, he said, violence-torn Anbar province suffered 303 overall attacks. “That number has been reduced to less than 30 this past week,” Odierno said.

» In Baghdad, where most of the surge forces were sent, the total of 143 attacks during the last week of October 2006 fell to less than 100 attacks in the same week this year.

» Odierno noted that the four-month decline in overall violence covers a period that includes this year’s Muslim celebration of Ramadan. During the previous three years, Odierno said, enemy activity increased significantly during Ramadan, the dates of which change from year to year in the standard Western calendar.

Le titre qui présente ces intéressantes considérations de Odierno est celui-ci: «Iraq Violence Still Declining: Odierno.» Passons à autre chose, également une dépèche de l’AFP, cette fois relayée par le Daily Star de Beyrouth du 2 novembre, sous le titre (surprise, surprise): «Deadly month in Iraq dulls US claims of progress, – 887 Iraqis killed in October, up from 840 in September.»

Voici quelques paragraphes de ce texte:

«The number of Iraqis killed in insurgent and sectarian attacks rose in October, according to government figures obtained on Thursday, in a blow to a 9-month-old US troop-surge policy.

»At least 887 Iraqis were killed last month, compared to 840 in September, according to the data compiled by the Interior, Defense and Health ministries.

»As in previous months, the dead were overwhelmingly civilians, with 758 reported killed against 116 policemen and 13 soldiers.

»The October death toll remained sharply down on the August figure of 1,770 but the increase on September dented boasts from both US and Iraqi leaders that the crackdown on insurgent and militia violence was leading to a significant fall in casualties.»

On vous fait grâce du reste, où sont cités des officiels irakiens venus dire que tout va de mieux en mieux, selon la réalité version Petraeus. La comptabilité US est désormais strictement définie de cette façon: «Odierno defined “attacks” as attacks against Iraqi infrastructure and government facilities; detonated roadside bombs; sniper, ambush, grenade and other small arms attacks; rocket and mortar attacks; and “found and cleared” roadside bombs.»

Pour faire bref, on dira que ne sont prises en compte que les types d’attaque qui déclinent, les autres étant laissées à l’incertitude du “body count” de morts civils qui n’intéresse pas le Pentagone. Par conséquent, tout va beaucoup mieux malgré que les morts continuent à s’empiler. La comptabilité officielle US de la guerre en Irak est une obscénité sans pareille, qui ne mérite même pas la discussion. Plus encore que la raclée que l’U.S. Army a encaissée en quatre ans de guerre imprévue, la relation publique faite de cette guerre soulève le cœur et condamne totalement cette expédition. Bon appétit.


Mis en ligne le 2 novembre 2007 à 15H44