Les dangers d’une confrontation USA-Chine

Les dangers d’une confrontation USA-Chine

Ce texte du site WSWS.org, du 5 février 2010, de John Chan, sur les possibilités de confrontation entre la Chine et les USA, est une excellente synthèse de la question. Les derniers événements y sont mis en évidence comme ils doivent être, les initiatives agressives des USA (vente d’armes à Taïwan, Tibet), les réactions très fermes de la Chine, les intérêts internes réciproques des deux pays, etc.

“[U]ne excellente synthèse de la question” mais, à notre sens, complètement dépassée parce que les deux facteurs considérés sont eux-mêmes dépassés: les intérêts et la vision géopolitiques prioritaires sur le reste, ce qui n’est plus le cas; la vision idéologique “de classe” appliquée à l’échelle des relations internationales, ce qui n’est doublement plus le cas (ni la vision idéologique, ni son application aux relations internationales). Nous sommes dans une époque où l’essentiel n’est plus les événements qui surviennent, qui sont pourtant si nombreux et déstabilisants, mais l’interprétation méthodologique qu’il faut en faire et que ces événements eux-mêmes nous permettent d'en faire.

«The escalating tensions are an expression of deep-going changes in geopolitics. The US as a declining but still dominant power faces growing economic and strategic challenges from rising China in every corner of the globe as Beijing seeks secure access to resources and markets. The US is aggressively attempting to consolidate its neo-colonial occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq in an effort to secure a hegemonic position in the key energy rich-regions of the Middle East and Central Asia. China is trying to consolidate its own alliances to keep the US out of what it regards as its Central Asian “backyard” and to guarantee vital oil and gas supplies.

»After assuming office a year ago in the midst of the global financial crisis, Obama sought China’s assistance. Faced with huge deficits, Obama officials appealed to Beijing to keep purchasing US bonds and brought Beijing into discussions of the crisis through the G20 grouping. Some optimists even speculated about the formation of a G2—the US and China—that would resolve the world’s economic and problems in the spirit of cooperation.

»The confrontational approach now adopted by the US, and China’s determined response, underscore the intractable economic, political and social contradictions facing the capitalist class in both countries. With double-digit unemployment at home and the necessity of making huge budget cutbacks, Obama is aggressively playing the China card to advantage the American economy at China’s expense and politically to divert attention from its own responsibility for the deepening social crisis in the United States.

»As for China, despite its “booming” growth rate, Beijing confronts rising unemployment and mounting social unrest, which will be further compounded if its key export industries are hit by protectionist measures. The regime’s huge stimulus measures have led to an orgy of speculation in shares and real estate, raising fears of a financial collapse. Like Obama, Chinese leaders are playing the chauvinist card, declaring that they will defend China’s interests, in order to obscure their role in creating one of the most socially unequal societies in the world.

»The very real danger is that Taiwan, Tibet or another issue can become the flashpoint for a rapid breakdown of relations and the eruption of trade war and ultimately military conflict—as occurred during the last great crisis of world capitalism in the 1930s.

dedefensa.org