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662A considérer par rapport à la relation et à l’analyse que nous faisons des premiers échos du traité START-II (voir ce 29 mars 2010), une analyse d’AFP (SpaceWar.com ce 29 mars 2010) qui considère que les Russes ont obtenu beaucoup.
L’analyse est fondée sur le fait que les Russes établissent une position de parité avec les USA, et que, sur la question des anti-missiles non résolue de façon satisfaisante, ils ont des moyens d’action légalement prévues par le traité. Ce jugement, fondé sur ce qu'on sait actuellement du traité, montre surtout que diverses interprétations sont possibles et que l'évaluation réelle du traité est pour l'instant très difficile à faire.
«Russia has much to be happy about in its new nuclear disarmament treaty with the United States, including a respectable compromise on the hot-button issue of missile defence, analysts said.
»With the treaty finally ready after months of difficult negotiations, Russia is now watching warily to see whether it will be ratified by the US Senate, where conservative Republicans have the power to kill it.
»Russian analysts described the new treaty as balanced – an accomplishment in and of itself, given Moscow's hunger to be seen as an equal to Washington after losing the Cold War and suffering a deep decline in the 1990s.
»“It is very good for Russia that it reached an agreement which on the whole was fairly even in nature,” Roland Timerbaev, a retired Russian diplomat and veteran of US-Soviet arms control talks, told AFP. “At the end of the day America is more powerful than Russia. This is clear,” said Timerbaev, who took part in the original talks on the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which the new agreement will replace.
»Moscow has touted the fact that the treaty, due to be signed by US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in Prague on April 8, includes language linking strategic offensive arms to missile defence.
»Russia, which is unhappy about US plans to build missile defences in eastern Europe, had long pushed for such a “linkage” and the issue was one of the main problems dragging out the negotiations.
»Washington says its missile defences are meant to protect against the threat of short- and medium-range missiles from Iran and not against Russia's vast arsenal of long-range missiles, but Moscow is still wary of the plans.
»The new treaty will impose no restrictions on US missile defences, both US Defence Secretary Robert Gates and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday after the agreement was announced. However, Lavrov made it clear that Russia reserved the right to pull out of the nuclear disarmament process if it believed the United States was going too far with missile defence.
»“This is a fairly even compromise. There could not have been any limits on missile defence in the treaty, because it is a treaty on strategic arms and not on missile defence,” said retired Russian general Vladimir Dvorkin. “The agreement is balanced and reflects the interests of both Russia and the United States,” Dvorkin, who is now an analyst at the Centre for International Security in Moscow, told AFP.»
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