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Comme nous l’observions le 12 avril 2010, la tragédie de Smolensk et la mort du président Kaczynski laissent apparaître, une fois l’effet de l’émotion dissipé, l’affrontement très vif entre le président et le Premier ministre polonais. La chose conduit même à certaines hypothèses selon lesquelles la vivacité de cet affrontement, par conséquent, le désir du président d’aterrir à tout prix à Smolensk pour que sa propre cérémonie ait lieu, est une des causes possibles de l’accident.
C’est The Independent du 13 avril 2010 qui donne des précisions à ce propos.
«Details emerged in Warsaw of the background to the President's fatal flight to attend a ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of the Katyn massacre of 22,000 Polish officers by Soviet forces.
»Sources said Mr Kaczynski and many in his entourage on board the doomed Tupolev were dissatisfied with attempts to effect a reconciliation over the 1940 massacre at a special ceremony in Katyn on Wednesday called by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Mr Putin, a former KGB agent, had invited his Polish counterpart, Donald Tusk, to attend a special ceremony of remembrance.
»But the soft-glove handling of that event by Mr Tusk tried the patience of the Polish President, who had not been invited. He resolved to fly to Katyn himself three days later in the company of his political allies in defiance of Mr Putin. “They wanted to hold their own ceremony in Katyn to give the anniversary the importance they thought it deserved but felt had been denied by Russia” a source close to the President's office said yesterday.
»President Kaczynski and members of his right-wing Law and Justice party felt they had been snubbed by Russia. They were also irritated that Mr Tusk, leader of the liberal Civic Platform party, had been allowed to take credit for Wednesday's ceremony. But even more galling was the fact that Mr Putin had failed specifically to apologise or address the massacre of Polish officers at Katyn and had simply referred to “victims of Stalinist terror” during the ceremony and that Mr Tusk had apparently failed to take his Russian counterpart to task over it.
» “Moscow is sabotaging attempts to give a proper historical account,” said Andrejz Przewoznik, the general secretary of Poland's State Council for National Memorials. “There was no breakthrough on Katyn,” remarked Aleksandr Szczyglo, president of the Polish National Security Council. Both men were on the plane and were killed in the crash.
»Mr Kaczynski had a long history of rivalry with Mr Tusk. The two even argued about who was entitled to use Poland's official Tupolev 154 plane, which crashed on Saturday. With a presidential election looming, Mr Kaczynski clearly felt that he could improve on Mr Tusk's efforts at remembering in Katyn.
»There was also speculation in Poland yesterday that President Kaczynski was so determined never to set foot in Moscow before extracting an apology from Mr Putin that he may have personally intervened and ordered the 36-year-old pilot of the Tupolev not to divert to the Russian capital but to land in Smolensk despite repeated warnings by air traffic controllers at the tiny airport that the fog made conditions too dangerous to attempt a touch down.
»Polish media reports recalled that in 2008 following Russia's invasion of Georgia, Mr Kaczynski had attempted to fly to Tibilisi to show his support for a country under siege. During the flight he took the unprecedented step of entering the cockpit and ordering the pilot to land despite adverse conditions. On that occasion the pilot refused, the aircraft diverted to another airport and Mr Kaczynski entered Georgia by car.»
• Dans la même édition du même 13 avril 2010, on trouve un texte d’un expert polonais, expert au Centre for European Policy Studies, Piotr Maciej Kaczynski, qui estime que l’affrontement entre le président et le Premier ministre a facilité le rapprochement du second avec Moscou. Kaczynski estime que la mort de Kaczynski va encore plus faciliter le rapprochement Vazrsovie-Moscou.
«Mr Kaczynski and Mr Tusk did not synchronise their Russian policy; the result was a bad cop, good cop routine. But Tusk's hand was strengthened by the President's impatience with compromise. In short, there would have been no rapprochement without the President's tough stance towards Russia.
»The Smolensk catastrophe could now bring a catharsis to Polish-Russian relations. History cannot and will not be forgotten, but there is a measure of new good will on both sides. The consequences remain largely unknown. Perhaps this tragedy will even have a transformative impact on Russia's internal debate on its own history. For the moment one thing is sure: for the first time in decades there are people in Poland speaking of “our friends from the East”.»