La coalition (suite) : choisissez PhG plutôt que l’Arabie

La coalition (suite) : choisissez PhG plutôt que l’Arabie

S’il faut comparer et choisir entre la proposition de PhG (« On fait coalition dimanche à la maison, vous venez ? ») et celle d’ailleurs affirmée comme étant déjà réalisée de l’Arabie des mille-et-un Princes, le conseil de bon sens serait de choisir la première. Déjà, on a une idée en observant les premières réactions de ceux qui ont été embrigadés d’office dans la riche idée des riches mille-et-un princes ; cela va du “pas au courant” à celle de “Quésako ?” et de “pas intéresé du tout”, notammen en Indonésie et au Pakistan. (En n'oubliant pas, comme l'avait déjà noté l'un de nos lecteurs, que le Liban a déjà, le premier, annoncé “n'être pas au courant” malgré que son nom soit dans la liste.)

Reuters donne une intéressante synthèse, très instructive, ce 16 décembre, sur les diverses réactions qui ont suivi l’annonce solennelle par le jeune et dynamique Prince héritier de la Couronne (ou adjoint-au-Roi, on ne sait) et ministre de la défense Mohammed ben Salman. Confusion complète, mines stupéfaites, peut-être même index tourbillonnant fixé sur la temps, etc. Il n’est pas certain que cette dernière initiative de ben Salman (la guerre contre le Yémen est aussi une de ses idées), qui prend eau de toutes parts et transforme la politique pseudo-agressive du Royaume en une clownerie à-la-The-Donald-en-campagne, renforce à terme assez rapide son statut au sein des autres mille-et-un Princes ; cela devrait accélérer les intrigues de couloir dans les mille-et-un palais des Princes, rendant encore plus fragile l’actuelle royale équipe au pouvoir.

On notera que la seule autorité à accueillir avec enthousiasme la nouvelle est le clergé ultra sunnite/wallabies, ce qui renforce l’idée d’une “ruse” pour rassembler une coalition anti-chiite. A Moscou, Lavrov a dit sa colère à Kerry que la Russie n’ait appris que par les journaux la formation de cette coalition, pour  s’entendre répondre, sur un air penaud, “Mais moi non plus, Sergei, je ne sais pas très bien ce qui se passe, je n’ai pas été averti”. (Ce qui a été exprimé par le Secrétaire à la défense Ashton Carter d’une façon plus martiale : « “We look forward to learning more about what Saudi Arabia has in mind in terms of this coalition,” U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on Tuesday. ») Reuters essaie de faire son travail en traitant sérieusement cette superbe bouffonnerie grotesque, ou grotesquerie bouffonne superbement illustrative de l’esprit du temps et de sa devise fameuse – “Plus vous avez de $milliards, plus complètement vous déconnez”. Voici donc ce que l’agence nous dit cette étrange coalition dont nombre de membres ne semblent pas avoir été avertis, ni particulièrement enthousiastes à l’idée...

« Some key members of the 34-nation anti-Islamic State coalition announced by Saudi Arabia have a fundamental question: just what is it? Indonesia did not know it was going to be a military alliance, which it does not want to join. A senior Pakistani lawmaker only learned the news from a Reuters reporter. [...] Comments from several of the countries that signed up to the initiative appeared to reveal a lack of preparation by Riyadh, which approached partners with an invitation to join a coordination centre but then announced a military alliance. When Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced the new group at a sudden midnight press conference, he called it an “Islamic military coalition”, a description that appeared to surprise some of the governments involved.

» Armanatha Nasir, Foreign Ministry spokesman for Indonesia, said the Saudi foreign minister had approached Jakarta twice in the past few days to ask it to join a “centre to coordinate against extremism and terrorism”. However, “what Saudi Arabia has announced is a military alliance, ... It is thus important for Indonesia to first have details before deciding to support it,” he said. Jakarta had not yet decided whether to join the group. Chief Security Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said later: “We don't want to join a military alliance.” [...]

» Of the 34 countries Riyadh said had signed up for its coalition, several of those contacted by Reuters appeared to have different conceptions of what it would actually entail, while some said they had not been officially notified. Pakistani Senator Sehar Kamran, who is on the Senate defence committee and lived in Saudi Arabia for many years, said a phone call from Reuters was the first she had heard of the alliance. “I haven't seen the news yet,” she said. Asked if this had been debated in the Senate or National Assembly, she said: “No. Not yet.” The country's Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry was quoted in the daily newspaper Dawn as saying he had been surprised to read of Islamabad's inclusion and was seeking details from Riyadh.

» That confused approach to the project may undermine its goal, not only of creating an effective group to fight militancy, but of assuaging Western fears that Muslim countries are indifferent to the threat posed by Islamic State. In recent weeks, media and politicians in Western countries have complained about what they see as Saudi Arabia's failure to match their own focus on destroying Islamic State militarily or to combat its militant Islamist ideology. [...]

» In Saudi Arabia, the coalition proposal was quickly endorsed by the Council of Senior Scholars, the grouping of top clerics in the conservative Islamic kingdom, which issued a statement urging all other Muslim states to join the grouping. Jubeir said the anti-terrorism group would not only include a military, security and intelligence track, but an ideological one as well. Whether more statements by the Wahhabi clergy denouncing militancy will allay Western criticism, though, is doubtful. [...]

» One driving force of support for Islamic State has been a rise in sectarian anger, much of it driven by the proxy wars emerging from a political struggle between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi'ite Iran. In that context, the absence from Riyadh's coalition of Iran and its allies Iraq and Syria seemed to suggest that it may hope eventually to use its Muslim coalition against terrorism as a Sunni bloc that could isolate Tehran's Arab Shi'ite proxies. [...] Whether such a goal would be shared by most of Riyadh's new partners in its much vaunted coalition, a group that includes countries which have amicable ties with Iran, appears unlikely. »

Mis en ligne le 17 décembre 2015 à 10H34