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652Les chiffres de la création d’emplois du mois de juin, aux USA, sont catastrophiques, aggravant encore le chômage qui passe (en chiffres officiels) de 9,1% à 9,2% (18%-20% réels). Non seulement l’économie fait du sur-place dans ce domaine fondamental pour l’équilibre social et politique, mais elle recule et retombe peu à peu dans la récession. La situation de tension entre le Congrès et l’administration sur la fixation du nouveau plafond de la dette (pour début août) ajoute à l’humeur générale épouvantable. Cette tendance devient un facteur essentiel parce que, si elle se poursuit, la réélection d’Obama devient absolument problématique.
De Reuters, du 8 juillet 2011.
«U.S. jobs growth ground to a near halt in June as employers hired the fewest workers in nine months, frustrating hopes the economy would bounce back quickly from a slowdown in the first half of the year. Nonfarm payrolls rose only 18,000, the Labor Department said on Friday. It was the weakest reading since September and below even the most dire forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
»The dismal report, which showed the unemployment rate climbing to a six-month high of 9.2 percent, stood in stark contrast with recent data on manufacturing and retail sales that had shown activity starting to perk up. “This report has dashed hopes that the economy was about to accelerate again,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “It is showing a much bleaker picture than other indicators and we must hope that it is overstating the extent of the slowdown.”
»Stocks on Wall Street tumbled on the dour report, while Treasury debt prices rallied on the view the Federal Reserve would keep overnight interest rates near zero well into next year. The dollar rose against a broad basket of currencies as investors turned risk averse. Contributing to the weak tenor of the report, the department said the economy created 44,000 fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought.»
Dans une analyse complémentaire, Reuters confirme cette vision très pessimiste et, surtout le caractère de plus en plus strtucturel que prend cette véritable rechute dans la récession. (Le 8 juillet 2011) : «U.S. job growth in June essentially ground to a halt for a second month running, suggesting a sharp first half slowdown is not merely a blip, as Wall Street economists and Federal Reserve officials had hoped. The U.S. economy generated just 43,000 jobs in the last two months, perhaps taking the world's largest economy skating closer to recession territory.
»It was difficult to find a bright spot in the U.S. Labor Department report. Many key labor market signals deteriorated, and the jobless rate rose unexpectedly to 9.2 percent even though the work force actually shrank. Shaun Osborne, senior currency strategist at TD Securities, summed it up: “The number stinks.” Watch for forecast revisions to second half U.S. gross domestic product.»
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