L'Egypte et sa “question israélienne”

L'Egypte et sa “question israélienne”

Yasmine El Rashidi, journaliste égyptienne, ancienne correspondante en Egypte du Wall Street Journal, du Washington Post, etc., écrit un article pour le site d’actualité du New York Review of Book le 2 septembre 2011. Elle y donne une bonne appréciation générale de la situation égyptienne vis-à-vis des récents événements du Sinaï et, d’une façon générale, pour ce qu’on nommerait “la question israélienne de l’Egypte”.

Elle y décrit les événements en Égypte, autour des ambassades et consulats israéliens, l’intensité de ces événements qui se poursuivent. Pour elle, “la question israélienne de l’Egypte” est un point essentiel de l’agenda politique en Egypte. Aucun parti politique, aucun candidat à la présidence, aucun gouvernement ne pourront l’ignorer et éviter de prendre des mesures importantes dans le sens d’une affirmation égyptienne face à l’Egypte. Les militaires du conseil suprême (SCAF) sont très réticents et très prudents, mais ils sont obligés de suivre cette tendance parce que, pour eux aussi, “la rue commande”. («The new political forces that are currently vying to govern the country will be forced to contend with a public that has used determined mass demonstrations to oust a leader who was deeply entrenched in power, and who will most likely continue to use that same form of leverage to press on the question of Israel.») Le schéma “faiblesse pour faiblesse” est ainsi confirmé ; la “question israélienne de l’Egypte” est faite pour durer et pour devenir un facteur structurel essentiel de la politique de l’Egypte post-Moubarak, confirmant ainsi le tournant fondamental de la situation pour Israël avec “le printemps arabe”.

«…But for all the major contenders for Egypt’s new civilian leadership—including both secular and Islamist candidates—maintaining the existing arrangements is intolerable. Indeed, since the fall of Mubarak, almost every political question—from the referendum and the rules for forming parties to the new constitution—has been controversial and divisive. Yet on the Israel issue there has been a wide consensus. In front of the Israeli embassy last week, westernized, English-speaking activists stood side-by-side with Salafis, Muslim Brothers, working class Egyptians, and educated elite. As someone pointed out, this was a “mini-Tahrir.”

»On August 20, even as the government was figuring out its own response to the killings, a group of political parties and presidential hopefuls met at the headquarters of the Islamist Al-Wasat party to discuss “how to handle the Israeli question.” The coalition was not only Islamist: it included Amr Moussa; Ayman Nour, the Al-Ghad Party leader; Hisham Al-Bastawisi, the widely-respected judge and presidential candidate; George Ishaq, the founder of Kefaya, the broad-based reform movement; and representatives of the Al-Wafd (liberal in coalition with Islamist parties), Al-Ghad (liberal, secular), El-Hadara (liberal, secular), El-Asala (Islamist) and El-Nahda (Islamist) Parties. After the meeting, the group announced that the Mubarak regime, which was a “strategic treasure” to Israel, is gone forever. “It has been replaced by a strong nation that doesn’t know weakness and knows how to get justice for the blood of its martyrs. In the face of the [Sinai incident], Egyptians have united across ideologies, political parties, police and army and put aside their differences for the sake of the nation.” The coalition announced a list of eight demands to be handed to SCAF. They include banning Israeli naval forces from passing through the Suez Canal, increasing Egyptian armed forces presence in Sinai, and reconsidering the gas deal.

»Government sources have since told me that the SCAF and the interim cabinet are being “forced to seriously consider” public demands to reset its Israel policies and that “discussions are taking place.” Troop allowances in the Sinai are likely to be where the interim government presses for change, as well as re-examining the controversial gas deal. “What the Egyptian public wants is important, but many of the demands are too drastic—they would escalate a situation in ways nobody would want,” Major-General Badin told me by phone last week. […]

»As I write this, no clear resolution to the Israeli issue has emerged. The government is still groping for an approach, stalling, buying time. Some Egyptians have called for a new demonstration at the Israeli embassy; a few, on Wednesday, were already back there, and some of them, on Friday, were calling on SCAF to follow in Turkey’s footsteps after the news broke that Turkey had expelled its own Israeli ambassador over Israel’s failure to apologize for the flotilla incident. Israel has meanwhile sent two warships to the Red Sea border with Egypt in anticipation of militant attacks; Egypt has deployed 1,500 more soldiers into the Sinai with permission from the Israelis; and the investigation into the killings reportedly still continues. The tension between the two states is playing out above all against the reality of rapidly declining security in the Sinai: the Egyptian military is asking for more troop allowances to contain rising extremism by militant groups; while Israel expresses alarm at the threat of those militants using the security void to infiltrate its territory.

»For their part, most Egyptians—including the Brotherhood—do not seem to want a new conflict with Israel. (Even Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiyaa, one of the most radical Islamist groups, has for the moment, expressed its solidarity with the military.) What they are demanding is redress for what they regard as deep-rooted grievances: about a treaty they believe denies them of basic rights to sovereign land (the Sinai); and more significantly, that compels relations with a government that has dealt repeated blows to the Palestinians and to fellow Arab states. The Israeli blockade of Gaza continues to be a key point of contention—including Egypt’s own continued part in that blockade. These grievances may become increasingly critical, as the military struggles to maintain its carefully tended security relationship with Israel amid growing tensions in Gaza, and as Egypt attempts to affect a rapprochement with Hamas even as it tries to control militancy in Sinai. The new political forces that are currently vying to govern the country will be forced to contend with a public that has used determined mass demonstrations to oust a leader who was deeply entrenched in power, and who will most likely continue to use that same form of leverage to press on the question of Israel.»

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