Le “perfect storm” du Pentagone est arrivé

Le “perfect storm” du Pentagone est arrivé

La revue The National Defense Magazine s’est émue, sous la plume de son président, Lawrence P. Farrell Jr., de ce qu’elle nomme “a perfect Storm” opposant la terrible situation budgétaire et les besoins de la défense. La revue représente une association puissante d’industriels soutenant les dépenses de défense, et son intervention est ainsi signifcative. Farrell est pessimiste : il va falloir réduire le budget du Pentagone.>

Dans le numéro daté du 1er août 2010, on lit donc des constats particulièrement alarmistes.

«There have been many warnings in recent years about a “perfect storm” threatening U.S. defense spending. These dire predictions so far have not been taken seriously as military budgets doubled during the past decade.

»But the storm is coming, and now it’s time to brace for a big one.

»A confluence of processes and events is creating the conditions for a severe fiscal crisis that will affect all aspects of the nation’s finances, and the impact on defense will be more acute as the U.S. military continues to fight costly wars.

»The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are now consuming in the neighborhood of $200 billion a year, which despite a defense budget just north of $700 billion, have dragged funds away from needed modernization. Recall that Congressional Budget Office projections from 2005 even then indicated that Defense Department funding was running $100 billion a year short of what it needed to fund the modernization programs planned at that time.

»Then came the 2007 recession, now extending past 31 months, which is the most protracted since World War II. Along with the downturn are unsustainable federal budgets and projections of more than $1 trillion in annual deficits out through 2020. The national debt is approaching $20 trillion and interest on the debt will be around $900 billion per year in 2020 — larger than the “projected” defense budget that year. The unsustainable nature of this budget projection has now been recognized as a national problem that can no longer be ignored.

»In response, President Obama this year appointed a National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. The so-called Deficit Commission is due to report in December. In anticipation, Congress has deferred action on the 2011 budget, which is normally scheduled to become law Oct. 1.

»Meanwhile, the $37 billion defense supplemental, that was requested by the Pentagon for prosecution of the ongoing wars, is stalled in Congress. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in the absence of funding by the July 4 recess, the department would have to “do something stupid.” The recess came and went, with no bill. The House passed a $58 billion bill — $37 billion for defense and $21 billion for domestic spending. The Senate has so far not acted, but leadership there opposes domestic spending in the supplemental. […]

»Other worrisome converging vectors are: Secretary Gates’ warnings about the need to cut unnecessary spending at Defense; a report led by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., “Debt, Deficits & Defense,” that calls for major budget cuts; and Undersecretary of Defense Ashton Carter’s recent initiative on affordability and productivity in defense spending.

»Gates cautioned that the “gusher” of defense spending that opened on 9/11 is about to close. He advocates retaining the current force structure, but is looking for savings within O&M, overhead (infrastructure, multiple headquarters and staffing), while continuing to oppose “unnecessary” programs such as more C-17s and the alternate fighter engine for the F-35.

»The Frank report was drastic in its proposals: going to a reduced strategic triad (nuclear bombers eliminated, boomer subs and land-based missiles greatly reduced); curtailing missile defense and space; reducing the Navy to 230 ships with two fewer carriers; eliminating two Air Force fighter wings and concomitant F-35 reductions; canceling the MV-22; slip the tanker buy; and unspecified compensation and healthcare reductions for military personnel and families… […]

»All of these developments could begin to cause turbulence around December. The major unstoppable weather vector is the dire financial condition of the United States. The other converging elements — tax and spending reform and defense spending and reorganization — are minor by comparison.

»Carter has invited the defense industry to participate in the coming decision-making and execution process. We intend to do so. Our position should be to make all decisions with a clear articulation of risk up front, and advocate for the most balanced force structure as basic criteria for future budgetary choices.»

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