L’Arabie va-t-elle envahir Bahrein, très vite?

L’Arabie va-t-elle envahir Bahrein, très vite?

Une hypothèse dans tous les esprits depuis plusieurs semaines, qui serait rencontrée précipitamment à cause de l’aggravation de la situation à Bahrein (puisque, là aussi, la contestation ne cesse de s’amplifier) : une intervention de l’armée saoudienne dans ce petit pays occupant une île reliée à l’Arabie, peut-être aujourd’hui même. (Petit pays, Bahrein, mais considérable importance stratégique, puisque le 5ème Flotte US y a son quartier-général et son port d'attache.)

Aljazeera fait une analyse de cette possibilité, ce 14 mars 2011 (alors que le Guardian annonce, ce même 14 mars 2011 que la demande de la direction de Bahrein pour une intervention saoudienne doit être officiellement faite aujourd’hui, peut-être avec une action immédiate de la part de l’Arabie). Il s’agirait d’un prolongement politique et stratégique considérable, pouvant entrainer une aggravation à mesure de la situation, à Bahrein et peut-être même en Arabie.

Extraits du texte d’Aljazeera...

«Bahrain has asked for help from neighbouring Gulf Arab countries after protesters overwhelmed police and cut off roads, and an adviser to the royal court said the forces were already on the strategic island kingdom. “Forces from the Gulf Cooperation Council have arrived in Bahrain to maintain order and security,” Nabeel al-Hamer, a former information minister and adviser to the royal court, said on his Twitter feed late on Sunday, accroding to the Reuters news agency.

»Gulf Daily News, a newspaper close to Bahrain's powerful prime minister, reported on Monday that forces from the GCC, a six-member regional bloc, would protect strategic facilities. “GCC forces will arrive in Bahrain today to take part in maintaining law and order,” the paper wrote. “Their mission will be limited to protecting vital facilities, such as oil, electricity and water installations, and financial and banking facilities.”

»Many Bahrainis are now nervously looking across to Saudi Arabia and wondering whether the giant neighbouring kingdom will send troops to prop up its close ally, the Khalifa monarchy.

»That question has been a topic of conversation in Manama for weeks. And The Guardian reported on Monday that Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, Bahrain's crown prince, would formally request a Saudi intervention later in the day.

»Such a move seems unlikely to win much support: Anti-government protesters worry that Saudi troops will be used to clear Pearl Roundabout. And even some government supporters fear the economic impact of what would essentially become a foreign invasion. “Who would want to do business here if there are Saudi tanks rolling across the causeway?” asked Abdullah Salaheddin, a Bahraini banker, last week, referring to the 26-kilometre causeway which connects the island kingdom to Saudi Arabia.

»Abdulrahman bin Hamad al-Attiya, the secretary general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the regional bloc that counts both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain among its members, gave a nod to military intervention in a statement on Sunday; he said that “safeguarding security and stability in one [GCC] country is a collective responsibility.”

»Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst, said if GCC troops confront protesters, as some fear, the situation will most likely escalate. “That would be the unthinkable,” he said.

dedefensa.org