La peur grandit

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La peur grandit

Sur Huffington.post, le 16 août 2010, un texte très court reprenant les avis de plusieurs économistes de renom, dont certains qui ont acquis leur célébrité en annonçant la première crise (autour de l'effondrement du 15 septembre 2008). Leur caractéristique commune cette fois ? La même chose, qui est l’annonce qu’il apparaît de plus en plus possible que nous nous dirigions rapidement et abruptement vers une rechute dramatique, – «…incrased chance of double-dip Recession», c’est-à-dire une nouvelle récession qui rapprocherait décisivement l’ensemble de la séquence d’une véritable nouvelle Grande Dépression.

«Buried amidst the increasingly gloomy economic news of the last few weeks – which includes stubbornly high unemployment, rising foreclosures and a grim outlook from the Fed, among other factors – is a growing sense of doom among some prominent economists.

»More than a few top economic thinkers have significantly upped the chances of a return to a recession. Today, the noted bear Nouriel Roubini, the cofounder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics and a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, delivered a grim prognostication via Twitter: “Risk of a double dip recession in advanced economies (US, Japan, Eurozone) has now risen to 40%.”

»Roubini is not alone in his concern. Last week, David Rosenberg, the Gluskin Sheff economist (formerly of Merrill Lynch), whose words have become must-read barometers of bear-ishness, said that the chances of a double-dip recession in the U.S. are now “higher than 50-50.”

»Yale's Robert Shiller, one of the nation's preeminent housing experts and the co-creator of the widely watched Case-Shiller Index, also said last week that there's greater than a 50 percent chance of falling into another downturn. The culprit, according to both Rosenberg and Shiller, is, quite simply, jobs… […]

»Mohamed El-Erian, the CEO of PIMCO, the world's largest bond investor, who the creator of the now ubiquitous phrase “new normal,” said earlier this month that the U.S. faces a 25 percent chance of a double dip and deflation.

»The dire forecasts are coming even from some of Wall Street's most profitable banks. Last week, Goldman Sachs warned in an email to clients that the chances of another downturn are “25 to 30 percent.”»

Une vision assez approchante, mais cette fois concentrée sur l’évolution des chiffres économiques et sociaux aux USA, est présente dans l’article du Los Angeles Times du 14 août 2010 : «Economic fears rise as disappointing figures pile up»

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