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596Le Royaume-Uni est-il en train de se transformer en une forme anglo-saxonne de IVème République? Des experts cités par le Daily Telegraph le 7 mai 2010 estiment qu’il y a de fortes chances pour une décision de dissolution du Parlement nouvellement élu et de nouvelles élections cette année même.
Mais l’appréciation de l’événement est plus sujette à contestation. Certains de ceux qui avancent cette prévision concluent que la dissolution permettra aux conservateurs d’emporter une victoire confortable avec majorité absolue, rétablissant le bon vieux système. Peut-être, mais c’est compter sans les événements généraux, la crise, l’état dévasté du Royaume-Uni et ainsi de suite, – justement, ce qui a causé la situation actuelle. La dissolution précipitée peut aussi bien être un signe d’impuissance et aggraver la forme d'impasse où se trouve le système.
«As the Conservatives started to negotiate with the Liberal Democrats about forming some form of alliance, political historians warned that it there was a strong chance that Britain would be forced to go to the polls by as soon as the end of the year. Dr Richard Toye, an historian at Exeter University, said: “I'd bet on an election in October or November this year.”
»According to the latest odds, being quoted by Betfair, the chances of a second election by the end of 2010 jumped from 28 per cent to 38 per cent during the course of the Friday, as political betters started to lay money on a Conservative-led alliance falling apart and David Cameron going to the country in an attempt to win an outright majority.
»The last time Britain elected a hung parliament, in February 1974, it resulted in a second election in October of that year, eight months later.
»Dr David Butler of Nuffield College, Oxford, one of the country's leading election experts, said there was likely be another election very soon, “because I don’t see the compromises that are necessary for a coalition.” He told the BBC: “I think the 1974 analogy is a very strong one and I think if Cameron does carry the next government, a minority government, he has a very good chance of winning a clear majority in a quick election afterwards.”»
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