Mid-term et perfect storm

Mid-term et perfect Storm

Rupert Cornwell, l’excellent analyste de The Independent, envoie un reportage de Washington ce 3 septembre 2010, où il détaille la situation politique US à deux mois des élections mid-term. Il s’attache aux dernières estimations du célèbre analyste Charlie Cook et de sa très respectée Lettre d’information Cook Political Report.

Les prévisions ne peuvent être pires : défaite sévère des démocrates, peut-être jusqu’à la perte de la majorité dans les deux Chambres ; un parti républicain vainqueur mais extrêmement instable à) cause des nombreux éléments de Tea Party qui l’ont pénétré ou qui pèsent sur lui.

«There has long been scant doubt that, barring a swift and improbable upturn in the economy, Republicans will pick up the 39 extra seats they need to regain control of the House of Representatives they lost in 2006. Now, polls say, they are on track to do better still, and have a reasonable chance of winning back the Senate as well.

»The respected Cook Political Report reckons that no less than 68 of the 256 House seats currently held by Democrats are at “substantial risk”, compared to 58 in June, with, at most, 10 Republican seats in danger. A similar picture emerges from the latest “Crystal Ball” survey by Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, which projects a net gain for Republicans of 47 seats, translating into a comfortable majority of 226 to 209.

»In the Senate, the Republican target of a gain of 10 to overturn the current 59-41 Democratic majority, also appears to be inching closer... […]

»But if the worst-case scenario for Democrats materialises, life will not be all plain sailing for Republicans either. In 1994, Republicans campaigned on a clear programme, the so-called “Contract with America.” This year, they have relied not on a specific alternative platform of their own, but merely on blanket opposition to everything proposed by the Democrats.

»In midterm elections, which almost invariably produce a backlash against the party holding the White House, such a strategy usually works. However the new Congress that convenes in January 2011 may be different.

»A landslide would send many ultra-conservative, anti-establishment Tea Party-leaning Republicans to Washington for the first time, ready to defy not just Democrats but also their own leaders they regard as part of a detested status quo.»

dedefensa.org