La Russie (avec l’Arabie) au cœur de la “crise du Levant” ?

Brèves de crise


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La Russie (avec l’Arabie) au cœur de la “crise du Levant” ?

Ne dites plus “crise syrienne”, “crise irakienne” (nième version), ou encore “crise de l’ISIS” (alias DAASH), ou même “crise du Moyen-Orient” ; dites plutôt “crise du Levant”, cela fait plus sage, meilleur connaisseur, peut-être est-ce plus juste avec un petit air de connivence avec l’“Orient compliqué”, et sans aucun doute cela sonne mieux. C’est ce que nous propose le Dr. Theodore Karasik («Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Jeddah two days ago discussing the Levant crisis with senior Saudi officials...»), dans son article du 22 juin 2014, dans Al-Arabiya, – dont il faut savoir, c’est important, qu’il s’agit d’un journal appartenant aux Saoudiens. Karasik lui-même, qui est un collaborateur régulier du journal, est un homme de la région des pays du Golfe, en tant que directeur de la Recherche et de la Consultance à l’INEGMA (Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis de Doubaï, dans les Émirats arabes Unis).

Son “chapeau” d’introduction nous instruit de l’essentiel, c’est-à-dire le rôle discret mais prépondérant de la Russie dans la “crise du Levant” dans sa phase actuelle, l’accord des Russes et des Saoudiens, aux dépens des USA que, décidément, l’Arabie n’a désormais plus l’air de porter dans son cœur, – comme la Russie, certes ... «A flurry of diplomatic activity is occurring between Riyadh and Moscow over not only Iraq but Syria. Russia is seeking to play the role of negotiator on all questions and Saudi Arabia holds the keys. If successful, Russia stands to gain substantially at the expense of the United States. The Kingdom engagement policy with the Russians may indeed produce peace dividends and further alter the geopolitical landscape.»

Qui croit que la Russie est paralysée par son flanc ukrainien et ne figure pas dans la crise du Levant, celui-là doit revenir sur ce jugement. Selon le Dr. Karasik, Russes et Saoudiens s’entendent comme larrons en foire, aussi bien sur la portion irakienne que sur la portion syrienne de la crise du Levant. Lavrov est partout dans la région en ce moment, activant la diplomatie russe pour la faire correspondre à celle de l’Arabie ... Dans tous les cas, la version du Dr. Karasik, qui doit avoir l’accord des Saoudiens si l’on en croit les diverses références mentionnées, est intéressante à connaître.

«The Kingdom and the Kremlin agreed to return to the Geneva 1 process which is to find a political transition in Syria. This is a significant development that signals that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s election on June 3 for another term is cemented as Russia wants and which Riyadh now appears to see as critical for Syria’s stability. Iran will be happy with this outcome because their efforts supporting Assad with military and financial aid are paying off. Iran is close to the Kremlin, and Russia will be able to negotiate between Riyadh and Tehran in a way to please both parties in the Syrian outcome. Time will tell what that political transition will look like.

»ISIS’s tidal wave in Iraq played right into Kremlin arguments about how the failures of “global color revolutions” led by the “American-Atlantist Community” wreck countries and leave them wide open to terrorist infiltration. Russia’s fresh diplomatic offensive is based on the new conceptual, doctrinal outlook from Moscow and is now being presented to the Saudis as a reason for the Levant’s woes and especially the unfolding catastrophic debacle in Iraq. The Kingdom seems to be buying the argument, and well they should, based on Riyadh’s distrust of America. ISIS’s activity in Iraq is reminding the Saudis how opposed they were to American invasion and occupation of Iraq. Consequently, the events are giving the Kingdom “a ground-hog day moment” according to an Arab official.

»During their meeting in Jeddah, Lavrov and Saud also said efforts should be made to “maintain the integrity of Iraq and the unity of all the components of the Iraqi people, who should benefit from equality of rights and duties”. Clearly this is a signal that the Kingdom and the Kremlin want to find a middle ground for Iraqi state stability while at the same time finding a possible solution to the leadership crisis in Baghdad. According to an Arab official, Riyadh and Moscow agree that Ayad Allawi is the best candidate to run Iraq as he has had close ties to Kingdom and Kremlin in the past. In addition, the key is Assad: All sides now see that Assad and the stability of Syria is now key and is part of the deal to getting Alawi into power in Baghdad. Clearly, the Saudis see the Russians are able to exercise their good ties with Iran and Iraqi Shiites to accept Allawi.

»Also of critical importance during this sequence of events is King Abdullah’s visit to Egypt. This visit to Egypt to support Egyptian President Sisi is full of significance and importance because Saudi Arabia sees Egypt as the core of the Middle East. [...] Moscow’s support for Egypt is also at play and taken together, the Kingdom and the Kremlin see eye to eye across the region. As such, this cooperation may be acceptable to Iran since such activity does not hurt the Islamic Republics interests—at least for the time being given the threat of Sunni extremists.

»... Overall, Saudi Arabia is acting quickly to help resolve regional security issue. Russia sees her historical mission coming to fruition by rushing into the debacle of the Levant and coming up with solutions that will perhaps firmly place the Near East within Moscow’s orbit and influence. The move is smart and timely. As such the status and prospects for the Saudi-Russian bilateral relationship are growing, and both the Kingdom and the Kremlin stressed their readiness to intensify it, including trade, economic and energy cooperation which has a solid potential for growth. [...] Clearly, Riyadh sees Moscow as a future security and economic partner who is an honest broker; much more than other Western powers.»

Mis en ligne le 23 juin 2014 à 18H11