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416A côté du brouhaha fou de la crise de la dette s’est développé, depuis vendredi dernier et la publication des chiffres révisant dans un sens extrêmement négatif les chiffres de l’“expansion” de l’économie US, un sentiment de très forte inquiétude parmi les économistes US, – et cela, quel que soit le résultat final de cette crise de la dette, – c’est-à-dire, même si un accord est effectivement voté et confirmé par le Congrès.
Le Washington Times a interrogé quelques économistes sur cette situation, le 31 juillet 2011.
«While much of the debate in Congress has focused on the potentially disastrous impact of a default, economists say an equal danger is that further harsh spending cuts — whether planned or unplanned – could be toxic for an economy that is wobbling precariously close to recession.
»“A government shutdown would have a big impact,” said Chris Lowe, chief economist at FTN Financial, referring to the looming cash crunch that could force an effective 40 percent cut in federal spending this month. He added that the bitter fight in Congress has been detrimental for the economy by zapping confidence and making businesses and consumers more hesitant to spend as they await news of changes in their taxes and benefits. “What is worrisome” is that growth has been getting progressively slower in recent months, he said. “At this point, growth is so close to zero that confidence is more important than it normally is, and the distraction of the debt ceiling fight could make a big difference.”
»Mark Vitner, an economist with Wells Fargo Securities, said the somber portrait presented in Friday’s report, which showed growth in the past year at only 1.6 percent, was a “game-changer” and presented a dilemma for a Congress bent on taming the debt. “More fiscal restraint, while needed to avert a debt-rating downgrade, does not appear to be a recipe for a stronger” economy, he said. “Growth is well below the 2 percent threshold that has predicted recessions in the past.” […]
»David Greenlaw, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said he is not worried so much about immediate spending cuts because he thinks Congress will enact borrowing authority in time to prevent a lapse in federal payments. He also said the spending-cut plans being discussed by party leaders likely will not do much to deter the economy this year, as the cuts are mostly “back-loaded” into future years.
»What does worry him is the looming expiration of payroll-tax cuts and other programs that were enacted at the end of last year to stimulate the economy. They have become “lost in the shuffle” in the debt debate, and they may not be revived, he said. The White House sought an extension of the stimulus measures as part of a “grand bargain” on the debt that never materialized.
That means the economy is headed for a sharp contraction in federal support at the beginning of next year, Mr. Greenlaw said. He said he is also “concerned about the general uncertainty and impact on business and consumer behavior” from the prolonged fight in Congress. Some businesses have put off hiring and investment while they wait to see what happens. “That’s becoming an increasingly important issue,” he said. “If this drags on for long, you will see more of a headwind for the economy.”
»“Even if the debt standoff is resolved quickly this week,” said Nigel Gault, an economist at IHS Global Insight, “the extreme uncertainty will surely already have damaged third-quarter growth by hurting consumer and business willingness to hire and spend.”»
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