Londres pire que la Grèce

Londres pire que la Grèce

Les derniers chiffres des dépenses publiques et des rentrées, avec un déséquilibre négatif amplifiant le déficit, montrent que l’état du gouvernement britannique est encore pire que celui du gouvernement grec. Hier, dans deux textes de The Independent, Sean O’Grady s’exclamait drôlement à ce propos…

Il y a un texte analysant la situation (lien : http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/shock-as-british-deficit-equals-that-of-greece-1904129.html).

«Britain's public finances are in a worse position than those of Greece, according to the latest figures on government borrowing. The Office for National Statistics said yesterday that January alone saw a net shortfall of £4.3bn, far worse than City forecasts and in a month which has always previously shown a healthy surplus. It puts the UK on track for a deficit of £180bn this year, or 12.8 per cent of GDP, economists said, shading the Greek figure, hitherto the worst in the European Union, of 12.7 per cent. In the pre-Budget report the Chancellor forecast a deficit of £178bn for the current year. Warnings that the UK could face a Greek-style crisis of confidence have been building for some weeks, and yesterday saw a sell-off of sterling and British government securities, or gilts, on the disappointing news.

»Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics commented: “The figures suggest that this year's budget deficit could exceed that of Greece and further underline the need for more decisive action to improve the fiscal position when the economy is strong enough to withstand it.” “It is clear that a more credible plan to restore the public finances to health will be required shortly after the general election in order to keep the markets and rating agencies at bay.”»

Dans son deuxième texte, un édito, O’Grady, après avoir observé que les collectivités locales sont elles aussi dans une très grave crise budgétaire, conclut en parlant de l’avenir britannique pas vraiment rose. (lien : http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/sean-ogrady-trouble-on-the-streets-ndash-and-in-the-markets-1904132.html.)

«At the other end of the spectrum would be a collapse in confidence in the ability of the Government to meet its obligations, Greek-style. A "gilts strike" by the markets, perhaps spurred by a downgrade in the credit rating of UK government debt, would devalue those widely held securities at a stroke: the destruction of wealth would make the subprime crisis look like a tea party, and affect almost everyone with a pension, for example. The vast quantity of gilts held in pension and insurance funds as supposedly ultra-safe assets would be worth far less, slashing the value of people's retirement funds and very possibly pushing those institutions towards insolvency. Much the same goes for other financial institutions with their reserves held in gilts – including the banks, who, like the pension companies, are required to hold a proportion of their assets in supposedly ultra-safe gilts.

»Again the nation would face the “too big to fail” dilemma as balance sheets disintegrated. We would have to bail out these big institutions. Except that this time, the Government would no longer be able to issue new gilts to pay for the bailouts, leaving the whole system in meltdown. Or, more likely, the UK going to the IMF for emergency assistance. The Greeks may beat us to it, but we may not be that far behind.»

“Vieux Rebelle”