Cadeau à Macron : une Merkel en granit

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Cadeau à Macron : une Merkel en granit

On sait que notre jeune président est En Marche ! cet après-midi pour séduire la chancelière si nécessaire à la grandeur de la France. Il devait, il doit la rencontrer en toute grande forme, parce qu’elle vient de remporter une victoire inattendue et flamboyante en Rhénanie-du-Nord-Westphalie qui augure excellemment des élections législatives (sans doute en novembre) et d’un nouveau mandat de fer de chancelière du même métal.

Le SPD espérait une énorme victoire dans ce Land, certains avançant le chiffre de 65% il y a cinq à six semaines encore, lorsque le parti vivait sur l’illusion de l’effet-Schultz (l’ancien président du PE, nouveau président du SPD). Parfaitement le contraire, complètement catastrophique pour les sociaux-démocrates : le SPD est passé de 37% à 32% et le CDU de Merkel est passé de 26% à 33%.

Alexander Mercouris explique, dans pourquoi ce résultat est catastrophique pour le jeune président Macron, européen convaincu, et convaincu également de l’importance enrichissante pour la France de sa complète dévotion faite à l’Allemagne.

« The simple fact is that Angela Merkel for all her many faults – about which I have written extensively – is within the context of German electoral politics an exceptionally successful politician.  Her success stems from three factors (1) an overriding focus on remaining Chancellor to which all other considerations are sacrificed (2) her extraordinary success in disposing of potential rivals and (3) the strength of the German economy whose export oriented businesses are benefitting disproportionately from the low interest rates and weak euro caused by the loose monetary policies of the European Central Bank even as Merkel’s insistence on Germany maintaining fiscal surpluses increases German competitiveness by containing wage growth and reducing domestic demand.

» Points (1) and (3) incidentally seal the fate of Emmanuel Macron.  He has been elected President of France on an agenda of reforming the eurozone in order to adapt it to French needs.  However like Tsipras and Varoufakis discovered after Syriza won the 2015 elections in Greece, Macron will before long discover that behind the sympathetic and conciliatory words Merkel always uses to defuse opposition Merkel is actually implacably opposed to any reform of the eurozone, since that might negatively effect if only in the short term the performance of the German economy upon whose continued growth her position as Chancellor depends.  Since Merkel’s overriding priority is to remain Chancellor that means that Macron’s hopes of reforming the eurozone are stillborn.  Only if France had elected a President who gave the impression of being willing to take France out of the eurozone might Merkel have been panicked into carrying out the reforms Macron says he wants.  Since no one believes Macron will do that his fate and that of his reforms is sealed.

» Which brings me to the larger point about Merkel.  I have previously discussed how her conservatism differs profoundly from that of her great rival Vladimir Putin.

» “Though Putin and Merkel are often referred to as conservatives, in reality that does neither of them justice.

»  “Though in many of his professed attitudes Putin is a conservative, he is also the leader of a dynamic and purposeful government which in the years he has been in power has transformed Russia, changing it more completely than any other country during the same period apart from China.

»  “Merkel is more truly conservative in the sense that she sees herself as essentially Germany’s caretaker, preserving the German political and economic system unchanged from the way she found it.  Where Putin’s policies are marked by dynamism and change, her policies can be best described as immobilism bordering on stagnation.

» Briefly, both in Germany and Europe Merkel is the great defender of the status quo, ensuring that nothing changes, and that things continue as they are.  Her whole position as Germany’s Chancellor depends on it.  It is a type of conservatism Europe has not seen since the age of Metternich.

» Just as Metternich’s system was stifling for Europe, so Merkel’s is.  Metternich’s system, since it could not be changed, ended in crisis and revolution.  Perhaps in time the Europe of Angela Merkel – Europe’s present day Metternich – will go the same way.  However if that happens, it will be a long time before it does.  In the meantime those looking for a change of direction in Germany or Europe, whether in terms of economic or foreign policy, are about to have their hopes dashed. »


Mis en ligne le 15 mai 2017 à 17H05


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