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853Une nouvelle prévision de pénurie de pétrole, après une accalmie assez longue sur ce front. Cette fois, la prévision fait “sérieux” puisqu’elle vient du Pentagone. La pénurie est prévue pour 2015, après la disparition de la production excédentaire dans les deux prochaines années. A partir de ces estimations, les militaires (il s’agit d’un rapport du Joint Forces Command) envisagent des conséquences en cascade, – politiques, sociales, militaires, etc, – sans pouvoir les identifier précisément.
Article dans le Guardian du 11 avril : http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply.
«The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.
»The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.
»“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,” says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.
»It adds: “While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.”
»The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with “an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments.”»
Le Guardian rapporte l’avis d’un expert, qui semble estimer que cette publication d’un rapport du Pentagone différant des prévisions du département de l’Energie pourrait relancer le débat sur la question du pétrole. L’expert semble soupçonner une pression du Pentagone pour susciter une réaction de l’administration Obama en général.
«Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College, London, who has been researching peak oil theories, said the review by the American military moves the debate on.
»“It's surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the US Department of Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the near-term. Now it could be interesting to know on which study the information is based on,” he said.»
“Chandernagor”
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